By Cindy Lever
The Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared El Nino and warns modelling suggests it could become the strongest weather event in recent times.
Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick from the Australian National University Fenner School of Environment and Society warned the current forecast for El Nino is in the extreme to very extreme categories.
However, she said at this stage it is difficult to predict the exact impact of this El Nino and the strength does not always predict the strength of impacts.
“Generally, an El Nino brings drier conditions during our winter and spring, which creates the background conditions for a hotter, drier summer,” she said.
“Australians should be vigilant about the summer that lies ahead, as the scales are now tipped towards drought conditions, longer and more severe heatwaves and an increased risk of bushfire weather.”
Experts in the Scenic Rim believe the recent unseasonal rains could prove either a blessing or curse.
Chair of the Local Disaster Management Group Councillor Steve Moriarty said they are playing a wait and see game.
He said while the recent good rain put us in a better position going into spring, it also meant lots of undergrowth, providing fuel for bushfires.
“There is the potential for people to start to run out of water especially those not on reticulated water such as Canungra, Tamborine Mountain and Beechmont,” he said.
Cr Moriarty said the LDMG would work closely with the Rural Fire Service which discussed El Nino at their last presentation.
“At the moment the threat is not imminent. Given the wet season and rain we’ve had recently with the growth, should we have an extended dry period the threat of bushfire is obviously going to be significant potentially this spring, depending on how things unfold this month,” Cr Moriarty said.
He said the message remained the same for any weather threat – to be prepared.
Cr Moriarty encouraged people to take responsibility for their own preparedness and if they feel they are vulnerable to reach out to the relevant authorities and check council’s disaster dashboard and the Queensland Fire Department website.
Scenic Rim area rural fire service manager Corey Bock said he expected an average to slightly above average fire season.
“The recent rain has changed the whole outlook,” he said. “We are looking pretty good at the moment.”
He said the fire season was predicted to be a little later, running from September 1 for 80 days, when it could be quite intense.
Mr Bock said they would be keeping a close eye on the region from Beaudesert to Rathdowney as well as the Boonah to Rathdowney area.
He warned the increased undergrowth would produce a smokier fire season, which could have significant impacts on those with respiratory illnesses.
His advice was to ensure people were subscribed to the Scenic Rim Disaster Dashboard for updates at https://disasterdashboard.scenicrim.qld.gov.au/.
Senior lecturer in energy markets at Macquarie University Dr Lurion De Mello said El Nino would impact water resources in remote areas that keep our farms moving and produce growing.
The Queensland Farmer’s Federation latest newsletter included information for farmers on El Nino and said the advice for this current one is it is likely to last well into the latter part of 2026.
Third generation beef farmer and owner of Telemon Crossing at Innisplain Warren Drynan said before the recent rain, they’d cut stock levels by 15 per cent and were extremely worried, however he said now the place is looking very green.
Mr Drynan said if El Nino is as bad as predicted it will mean their whole management strategy will have to change and while there will be immediate implications the long-term financial implications could last two years with cows not going into calf.
However, he said many local farmers weren’t worried because of the recent rain.
