The Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared El Nino and warns modelling suggests it could become the strongest event in recent times.
Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick from the Australian National University Fenner School of Environment and Society warned the current forecast for El Nino is in the extreme to very extreme categories.
However, she said at this stage it is difficult to predict the exact impact.
“Generally, an El Nino brings drier conditions during our winter and spring, which creates the background conditions for a hotter, drier summer,” she said.
“Australians should be vigilant about the summer that lies ahead, as the scales are now tipped towards drought conditions, longer and more severe heatwaves and an increased risk of bushfire weather.”
Experts in the Scenic Rim believe the recent unseasonal rains could prove either a blessing or curse.
Chair of the Local Disaster Management Group (LDMG) Councillor Stephen Moriarty said they are playing a wait and see game.
He said while the recent good rain put the region in a better position going into spring, it also meant lots of undergrowth, providing fuel for bushfires.
“There is the potential for people to start to run out of water especially those not on reticulated water such as Canungra, Tamborine Mountain and Beechmont,” he said.
Cr Moriarty said the LDMG would work closely with the Rural Fire Service which discussed El Nino at their last presentation.
“At the moment the threat is not imminent. Given the wet season and rain we’ve had recently with the growth, should we have an extended dry period the threat of bushfire is obviously going to be significant potentially this spring, depending on how things unfold this month,” Cr Moriarty said.
He said the message remained the same for any weather threat – to be prepared.
Cr Moriarty encouraged people to take responsibility for their own preparedness and if they feel they are vulnerable to reach out to the relevant authorities and check council’s disaster dashboard and the Queensland Fire website.
Tamborine Mountain Fire and Rescue Captain James Croak urged residents to prepare now.
“Look around the house and clean gutters, trim trees, make sure you have an exit plan and copies of all important documents. Keep grass low and look at where you are stacking firewood and prepare water storage before you run dry,” James said.
“The moisture in the ground will dissipate and everything will get a dry crispy feel. The ground will start to crack.”
He said if fires break out, they would be fast moving high intensity ones similar to those seen in the Toowoomba region during the El Nino in the 2019/2020 season.
Scenic Rim area rural fire service manager Corey Bock said he expected an average to slightly above average fire season.
“The recent rain has changed the whole outlook,” he said.
“We are looking pretty good at the moment.”
He said the fire season was predicted to be a little later, running from September 1 for 80 days, when it could be quite intense.
Mr Bock said they would be keeping a close eye on the region from Beaudesert to Rathdowney as well as the Boonah to Rathdowney area.
He warned the increased undergrowth would produce a smokier fire season, which could have significant impacts on those with respiratory illnesses.
His advice was to ensure people were subscribed to the LDMG page (Disaster Dashboard) for updates.
Tamborine Mountain Disaster Management volunteer Arran Hassell said they’d already had discussions on bushfire management.
“Given it has been a wet start to the year and winter, we are not overly concerned but conscious grasses will grow and if it does dry out in the back half of the year the risk of fire is increased,” he said.
Mr Hassell said the group had recently run an exercise with the Scenic Rim Regional Council and emergency service representatives and would be holding one for the community in September, focusing on El Nino.
“People are often complacent around any disaster that could hit the community. Now is the time to do preparation but preparation activities are not always well represented,” he added.
“It is always worth being prepared and preparations should happen when you are in between disasters exactly as we are now; making sure the generator is serviced, and you have a disaster plan.”
Senior lecturer in energy markets at Macquarie University Dr Lurion De Mello said El Nino would impact water resources in remote areas that keep our farms moving and produce growing.
The Queensland Farmer’s Federation latest newsletter included information for farmers on El Nino and said the advice for this current one is it is likely to last well into the latter part of 2026.
Third generation beef farmer and owner of Telemon Crossing at Innisplain, Warren Drynan, said before the recent rain, they’d cut stock levels by 15 per cent and were extremely worried, however he said now the place is looking very green.
Warren said if El Nino is as bad as predicted it will mean their whole management strategy will have to change and while there will be immediate implications the long-term financial implications could last two years with cows not going into calf.
However, he said many local farmers weren’t worried because of the recent rain and few in the Scenic Rim rely solely on farming for their family income.
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